Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Pengangguran Di Provinsi Aceh Tahun 2023-2032 Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

  • Yusrini Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
  • Dian Firmayasari S Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
  • Hukmah Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
  • Suriani M Universitas Muhammadiyah Bulukumba
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30605/proximal.v7i2.4518
Keywords: Unemployment, Forecasting, ARIMA

Abstract

Abstrak. Tingginya tingkat pengangguran menjadi salah satu indikator ketidakstabilan ekonomi di suatu daerah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis jumlah pengangguran di Provinsi Aceh dari tahun 2023 sampai 2032 menggunakan metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Pada penelitian ini data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa data jumlah pengangguran Provinsi Aceh dari tahun 1993 sampai dengan 2022 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Proses analisis data dalam penelitian ini mencakup beberapa tahapan penting yaitu identifikasi model stasioner, estimasi parameter, uji signifikansi parameter, pemeriksaan diagnostik, dan peramalan. Dalam tahapan ini, dilakukan identifikasi terhadap pola data masa lalu untuk meramalkan jumlah pengangguran di masa depan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA (1,2,2) adalah model terbaik untuk meramalkan jumlah pengangguran di Provinsi Aceh dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 34,341%. Hasil peramalan mengindikasikan bahwa jumlah pengangguran di Provinsi Aceh cenderung mengalami penurunan dalam beberapa tahun mendatang. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi referensi bagi pembuat kebijakan dalam merancang strategi penanggulangan pengangguran di masa depan.

Kata Kunci:     Pengangguran, Peramalan, ARIMA

Abstract. The high unemployment rate is one of the indicators of economic instability in an area. This study aims to analyze the number of unemployed in Aceh Province from 2023 to 2032 using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method. In this study, the data used is secondary data in the form of data on the number of unemployed in Aceh Province from 1993 to 2022 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The data analysis process in this study includes several important stages, namely stationary model identification, parameter estimation, parameter significance test, diagnostic examination, and forecasting. In this stage, identification of past data patterns is carried out to predict the number of unemployed in the future. The results of the analysis show that the ARIMA model (1,2,2) is the best model to predict the number of unemployed in Aceh Province with a MAPE value of 34.341%. The results of the forecast indicate that the number of unemployed in Aceh Province is likely to decline in the coming years. This research is expected to be a reference for policymakers in designing strategies to overcome unemployment in the future.

Keywords:       Unemployment, Forecasting, ARIMA.

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Published
27-08-2024
How to Cite
Yusrini, Dian Firmayasari S, Hukmah, & Suriani M. (2024). Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Pengangguran Di Provinsi Aceh Tahun 2023-2032 Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika Dan Pendidikan Matematika, 7(2), 961-974. https://doi.org/10.30605/proximal.v7i2.4518
Issue
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Menjembatani Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika menuju Pemanfaatan Berkelanjutan
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2024 Dian Firmayasari S, Hukmah, Yusrini, Suriani M

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