Aplikasi Holt’s Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing dalam Prediksi Harga Emas di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30605/proximal.v8i4.7367Keywords:
peramalan, harga emas, Holt's Linear Trand Exponential Smoothing, MAPEAbstract
Harga emas merupakan salah satu indikator ekonomi yang penting dan sering dijadikan acuan dalam kegiatan investasi serta kebijakan keuangan. Tren harga emas yang meningkat namun fluktuatif menimbulkan kebutuhan untuk melakukan peramalan jangka pendek guna mendukung pengambilan keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi harga emas di Indonesia menggunakan metode Holt’s Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing. Data yang digunakan berupa harga emas bulanan dari Desember 2024 hingga November 2025 yang diperoleh dari PT Aneka Logam Indonesia. Model diestimasi menggunakan parameter pemulusan dan dengan asumsi awal dan . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yang diperoleh dari perhitungan sebesar 6,47%, yang termasuk dalam kategori prediksi sangat akurat. Prediksi harga emas pada bulan Desember 2025 adalah Rp 2.710.325,21, dengan kisaran antara Rp 2.534.955,33 hingga Rp 2.885.695,09. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Holt’s Linear Trend Exponential Smoothing efektif digunakan untuk peramalan jangka pendek, khususnya untuk prediksi satu bulan ke depan pada deret waktu dengan pola tren linier tanpa komponen musiman. Penelitian selanjutnya dapat mengevaluasi kinerja metode ini pada periode data yang lebih panjang atau membandingkannya dengan metode peramalan lain untuk memperoleh hasil prediksi yang lebih stabil dan komprehensif.
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