Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) dalam Hasil Usaha Tani Buah Naga
Abstract
Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi data deret waktu lebih dari satu variabel yang menggunakan variabel eksogen dalam sistem persamaannya. Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah dengan menggunakan dua variabel endogen dan satu variabel eksogen. Penelitian ini menggunakan data primer dan sekunder. Data primer yaitu data bulanan deret waktu hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil dari tahun 2021 sampai dengan tahun 2022 di Desa Pulo Pitu Marihat Kecamatan Ujung Padang Kabupaten Simalungun serta Data sekunder yaitu curah hujan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memprediksikan hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil di Desa Pulo Pitu Marihat Kecamatan Ujung Padang Kabupaten Simalungun dari januari 2023 sampai dengan Desember 2024. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) yang dapat diterapkan terhadap data hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil adalah Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX (1,1)). Nilai MAPE untuk model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX (1,1)) pada variabel buah naga besar yaitu -22% dan buah naga kecil yaitu -27,6% sehingga ketepatan hasil prediksi model dapat dikatakan baik digunakan.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Serly Afrina Sinaga, Hendra Cipta, Rina Widyasari
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